Threat Inflation?Paul Nitze: A Confirmed Pessimist
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Threat Inflation?Paul Nitze: A Confirmed Pessimist
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NSC-68NSC-68 is an early example of threat inflation. When collecting evidence, the Air Force and CIA gave projections of the USSR’s future nuclear arsenal that were inflated. The Air Force also led the authors to believe that the Soviet Air Force also had the means to reach and deploy bombs on U.S. soil [1]. Therefore, combined with faulty intel and harsh rhetoric, Nitze’s NSC-68 presents a pessimistic view of the U.S. status, and was partly the reason why it wasn’t implemented until much later.
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Gaither Report
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'Team B'Nitze was invited to be a part of the CIA’s ‘Team B’. Team B was made up hawkish members who rejected the common U.S. ‘mirror-imaging’ belief, where Soviet decision makers will behave as their U.S. counterparts would in similar circumstances. “The evidence suggests that the Soviet leaders are first and foremost offensively rather than defensively minded.” [3] Therefore, ‘Team B’ believed that the Soviets thought less about achieving nuclear security than possessing an effective nuclear capacity.
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